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2025

Population of cancer survivors to grow past 22 million in 2035

May 30, 2025 - American Cancer Society

The American Cancer Society, along with researchers from the National Cancer Institute, recently published their estimates for how the cancer survivor population will grow in the United States. Cancer prevalence data, or the number of people alive as of a certain date who have a history of cancer, came from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Together with data on cancer case rates, deaths, and survival, researchers can model how these different populations of cancer survivors will change over time.

As of January 1, 2025, the researchers estimate that 18.6 million people in the United States were still alive despite a cancer diagnosis in their medical history. By 2035, the estimates grow to over 22 million people. The cancer sites with the highest number of survivors are prostate, melanoma, and colorectal for men and breast, uterine, and thyroid for women. About half of all cancer survivors were diagnosed in the last 10 years, and 79% of all survivors are age 60 or older. The researchers explore trends in cancer incidence, death, treatment, and survival across 11 different sites and groups, including children and adolescents. With the number of cancer survivors growing along with an aging population in general, the researchers note ongoing challenges related to the long-term health and supportive care needs of cancer survivors.

Rates of specific cancers increasing in people between ages 15 and 49

May 8, 2025 - Cancer Discovery

A cancer is often referred to as “early-onset” when it develops in a patient under 50 years old. In a study just published in Cancer Discovery, Dr. Meredith Shiels of NCI used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program to compare the recent rates of new cancers and deaths in early-onset age groups (15- to 49 years) with rates in older age groups (50-79 years).

Between 2010 and 2019, 2,020,829 cancer cases were diagnosed in people between the ages of 15 and 49, with 63.4% of these cancers occurring in women. The most diagnosed cancer types were breast, thyroid, and melanoma for women and colorectal, testicular, and melanoma for men. As of 2019, the overall rate of new cancer cases did not change much for 15- to 29, 30- to 39, and 40- to 49-year-olds. However, when looking at specific cancer sites, the rates of new cases increased for 14 out of 33 different types of cancer occurring in 15- to 49-year-olds.

Rates of new cases of 19 cancer types decreased among early-onset groups, including lung and prostate cancer. Meanwhile, overall cancer mortality rates did not change much across any age group, but deaths from certain types of cancer like colorectal, bone and joint, uterine, and testicular did increase among certain age groups.

Dr. Shiels and her colleagues point to a couple factors that may drive the increasing cancer rates at specific sites. One, doctors increased screening and detection of certain diseases and genetic mutations linked to cancer, which can result in a cancer diagnosis at an earlier age. Two, rising rates of obesity nationwide might be contributing to the rising rates of 7 types of cancer in young people, such as colorectal, kidney, uterine, pancreatic, stomach, cervical, and myeloma. Because some of the increasing cancers among younger age groups are also increasing among older age groups, researchers need to investigate recent changes in risk factors at any age.

California uses SEER to analyze rates of new prostate cancer cases and deaths

January 27, 2025 - JAMA

Doctors look for prostate cancer using a prostate specific antigen (PSA) blood test. After previously recommending against PSA screening for all men, in 2018 the US Preventative Services Task Force recommended that men between ages 55 and 69 talk with their doctor about the possible benefits and harms of a PSA test. One of the issues with a PSA test is its inability to determine if the prostate cancer is slow-growing, and doesn’t need treatment, or if it’s aggressive and needs treatment before it advances to later stages. In other studies using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, researchers found rates of regional and distant-stage prostate cancer increased from 2011 to 2019. A recent publication in Urology uses California-based SEER data to understand rates of new prostate cancer diagnosis and deaths between 2004 and 2021.

Overall, between 2004 and 2021, there were 387,636 prostate cancer cases in California. Out of these cases, 27,938 were diagnosed at the “distant” stage, meaning the cancer spread to other parts of the body far away from the prostate. From 2011 to 2021, the rate of new prostate cancer cases diagnosed at the distant stage increased by 6.7% each year. 9 out of 10 California regions had a 6% increase in distant stage disease. As for prostate cancer deaths, the trend had been improving for decades but stopped decreasing between 2012 and 2021. The researchers suggest development of new PSA screening strategies that are based on a patient’s risk for aggressive prostate cancer.

2024

Rates of distant-stage breast cancer on the rise

December 10, 2024 - Radiology Tweet

When doctors diagnose cancer, they also determine the stage of the disease, which helps explain how far the cancer has spread. The later the stage—meaning the cancer spread further in the body—the more difficult it is to treat. In a recent paper published in Radiology, researchers at the University of Colorado School of Medicine analyzed the most recent data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program to understand the recent rates and trends of distant-stage breast cancer.

In this study, the researchers used de-identified data from 22 SEER cancer registries, which collectively cover nearly half of the US population. In total, the researchers analyzed population-based data covering between 71 and 80 million women from January 2004 to December 2021. Across all age groups, the rate of distant-stage breast cancer cases at diagnosis increased by 1.16% each year from 2004 to 2021. But, during this time, the rate of new distant-stage breast cancer diagnoses increased two and a half times faster—2.91% each year—among women between the ages of 20 and 39. Black women had a 55% higher rate of distant-stage disease compared to White women. The researchers point to recent disruptions in routine breast cancer screening that happened during the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted in an underdiagnosis of late-stage cancer. The researchers suggest improvements in screening strategies and healthcare access as ways to reduce these burdens.